Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
